28 October 2012

PRU-13:Sumbangan kerusi Parlimen BN Sabah

SENARIO politik tanah air yang tidak menentu, akibat tsunami politik tahun 2008, sedikit sebanyak menyumbang kepada keupayaan BN Sabah pada PRU-13 yang akan datang.

PRU-13 akan dipanggil bila-bila masa daripada sekarang, walaupun besar kemungkinan pilihanraya yang disebut sebagai IBU kepada semua pilihanraya Negara itu akan berlangsung selepas 28 April, 2013.

Pada PRU 2008, untuk kedua kalinya BN kehilangan kuasa 2/3 di Dewan Rakyat (Yang Pertama tahun 1969 semasa gabungan berbagai parti itu masih bernama Perikatan).

Keputusan PRU-2008, menyaksikan kekuatan BN di Semenanjung hampir berimbang dengan kekuatan PR, di mana BN hanya mampu mendapat 85+1 kerusi parlimen berbanding PR 80 daripada 166 kerusi yang dipertandingkan. Walaupun kerusi BN lebih banyak, namun jika dilihat daripada undi popular, PR mengatasi BN dengan rasio 52:46.

Pada PRU-13, jumlah keseluruhan kerusi yang dipertandingkan tidak berubah. Di Semenanjung 166 termasuk wilayah Persekutuan, manakala Sarawak 31 dan Sabah 26 termasuk satu kerusi bagi WP Labuan.

Pada PRU kali ini, berbagai spekulasi timbul, terutama di Sarawak dan Sabah yang dianggap sebagai simpanan tetap BN.

Di Sarawak, ekoran keputusan PRN pada April 2011, nampaknya parti pembangkang terutama DAP dan PKR sudah berjaya bertapak di bumi kenyalang, apabila melihat jumlah kerusi yang diperolehi parti-parti itu. 

Ada yang mengatakan bahawa keputusan PRN adalah tidak sama dengan keputusan peringkat parlimen, kerana pada PRN Sarawak, parti-parti pembangkang membawa misi mahu memerintah negeri. Akibat kegagalan parti-parti pembangkang menumbangkan BN Sarawak, maka persepsi rakyat kini telah kembali kepada biasa, di mana sokongan rakyat kepada BN bertaut semula. Sejauh mana persepsi ini, agak sukar difaktakan, kerana parti-parti pembangkang sudah mengila menabur berbagai janji retorik bagi mendapat sokongan rakyat.

Sementara di Sabah pula, kalaulah parti-parti pembangkang sukar mendapat kata sepakat berhadapan satu lawan satu dengan calon-calon BN, maka sukar bagi parti pembangkang bertapak di Bumi Di Bawah Bayu itu.

Kekuatan BN Sabah terutama di kawasan bumiputera islam sukar diganggu gugat; walaupun pada kali ini akan berlaku persaingan sengit di DUN Klias dan Parlimen Beaufort.

Sementara kawasan KDM, jika berlaku satu lawan satu, kawasan-kawasan yang kelabu bagi BN termasuk Parlimen Pensiangan, Parlimen Penampang dan Parlimen Putatan. Bagi kawasan cina pula, Parlmen Kota Kinabalu agak sukar dirampas daripada DAP, manakala Parlimen Sandakan dan Tawau, masih dalam kedudukan 50-50.

Namun apabila berlaku pertembungan berbagai penjuru, BN akan menang di semua kawasan, kecuali Parlimen Kota Kinabalu.

Bagi kerusi-kerusi DUN pula, nampaknya BN Sabah tidak mempunyai laluan sukar mempertahankan sebahagian besar kerusi. Malah, DUN Sri Tanjung pada kali ini akan dimenangi BN. Walaupun demikian, besar kemungkinan juga BN Sabah akan kehilangan dua kerusi DUN, yakni DUN Kuala Penyu dan Klias. 

Bergantung pada senario selepas penamaan calon, apabila berlaku pertembungan satu lawan satu untuk semua kerusi di Sabah bagi kawasan parlimen, BN Sabah berhadapan dengan saingan saingan sengit di berapa kawasan parlimen, demikian juga kawasan DUN.

Walaupun keupayaan BN Sabah tidak sama dengan keupayaan pada tahun 2008, kali ini disebabkan berbagai senario politik yang berlaku di Sabah, nampaknya kekuatan BN Sabah menghadapi PRU-13 jauh lebih kukuh berbanding PRU-PRU lalu. Anda boleh bersetuju untuk tidak bersetuju, namun berasaskan pengamatan Suara Rakyat; pada PRU kali ini, kejayaan BN Sabah adalah hampir sama dengan kejayaan pada PRU 2004 dan 2008.

29 comments:

Ian Cooper said...

Seat allocations for the coming 13th General Election among Barisan Nasional (BN) component parties have long been sorted out except for those presently held by Sabah Progressive Party (SAPP).

Ian Cooper said...

United Pasok Momogun Kadazandusun Murut Organisation (Upko) President Tan Sri Bernard Dompok said the party is eyeing one of the SAPP parliamentary seats due to strong support for Upko in the particular seat.

Ian Cooper said...

He said the party has submitted the request to the top leadership of BN to be considered. "We have been in BN for a long time and I think we know the parameters where BN works.

Ian Cooper said...

Upko has settled seat allocations with the BN leadership except for the SAPP seats that have yet to be settled. The party (Upko) has applied to contest in one of the parliamentary seats of SAPP and has submitted few requests to BN É it is only fair that BN look at it first

Ian Cooper said...

SAPP seats comprise two State seats (Likas and Luyang) and two parliamentary seats (Tawau and Sepanggar). It was learnt that Upko is eyeing the Sepanggar parliamentary seat, along with Umno, PBS and LDP.

Frances Samil said...

Yakin saja BN menang majoriti kerusi MP dan ADUN.

Frances Samil said...

Kekalahan pembangkang nanti adalah disebabkan kesilapan percaturan mereka sendiri.

mantera said...

peluang Bn untuk menang masih tiggi.

mantera said...

peluang pembangkang di Sabah masih tipis sekali mereka tak bersatu.

ScottyDoesntKnow said...

Umno Information chief Ahmad Mazlan is confident that Barisan Nasional (BN) will continue to be in power after the 13th General Election.

ScottyDoesntKnow said...

Ahmad Mazlan, who is also deputy minister in the Prime Minister's Department, rejected the notion that BN would be toppled in the coming general election, based on feedback received.

ScottyDoesntKnow said...

"We are not theorising in an air-conditioned room. We actually meet the people and clearly the people are very happy with the government policies.

ScottyDoesntKnow said...

"The people get subsidies, get financial aid, jobs, houses and live in peace. There is no reason why the people want to change the government," he told reporters after a function.

ScottyDoesntKnow said...


He also rejected rumours that the people's representatives, especially among Sabah BN leaders, would be jumping ship, due to the increasingly shaky position of BN."It Is absurd thinking.

ScottyDoesntKnow said...


The opposition only knows how to play on sentiments. They use psychological warfare, purportedly they can rule Malaysia.

ScottyDoesntKnow said...


But clearly they are lying and their leaders only know how to blow empty promises," he added.

ScottyDoesntKnow said...

Maintenance of racial unity is one of the promises to the people that the Barisan Nasional government has fulfilled, besides ensuring development and economic stability, Deputy Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin said.

ScottyDoesntKnow said...


He said the policies implemented by the government had successfully fostered and strengthened unity among the people of the various races and religions.

ScottyDoesntKnow said...

"It is our promise to the people, to the Malays, Chinese, Indians, Iban, Kadazan, Dusun and so on .... Our government has to create a situation conducive for good relations among the people.

ScottyDoesntKnow said...


"Cooperation and unity have been in place for more than 55 years, most successfully," he said in his address at a gathering in conjunction with the "Promises Fulfilled Tour" programme, here.

ScottyDoesntKnow said...

He said the cooperation and unity among the people of differing backgrounds in the economic, political and cultural sectors had made Malaysia a model for other countries.

ScottyDoesntKnow said...

Muhyiddin said that according to the sociological theory, a country with a multi-racial population would face problems in race relations, but added that this had not occurred in Malaysia.

ScottyDoesntKnow said...


He said the book 'The Plural Society', written by sociologist M.G. Smith, stated that countries with a multi-racial population would face prolonged racial problems.

ScottyDoesntKnow said...


"In Malaysia, we have been able to negate this theory despite the fact that Malaysians comprise people of differing customs and cultures and come from varying backgrounds," he said.

ScottyDoesntKnow said...


Muhyiddin said problems arising from religious and cultural differences would have a negative impact on the government's efforts to develop the country and bring prosperity to the people.

ScottyDoesntKnow said...

As such, he said, the government would not allow anyone with vested interests to cause racial uneasiness in the country.

ScottyDoesntKnow said...


"These people can be penalised under laws such as the Sedition Act to stop their actions so that we can live in peace," he said.

ScottyDoesntKnow said...

He said the BN government promised to ensure maintenance of racial unity so that it could implement all its plans for the people's well-being.

ScottyDoesntKnow said...

He also said that the government was committed to implementing its agenda of development for the people regardless of race and background.

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